UK and Argentina clash over Falklands: What are the risks for business?

On January 31, 2012,

The UK Ministry of Defence has dispatched HMS Dauntless to the Falklands

Recent weeks have witnessed a clear rise in tensions between the UK and Argentina over the Falkland Islands – almost 30 years after the countries fought a short but bloody war over the South Atlantic archipelago.

The latest war of words between the two countries began in December when Argentina persuaded the Mercosur group of countries, which includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, to ban ships sailing under the Falkland Islands flag from using the ports of member nations.

In recent days, the UK Prime Minister David Cameron described Argentina as having a ‘colonialist’ attitude to the islands. The British Ministry of Defence meanwhile announced today that it would be sending HMS Dauntless, one of its most modern ships, to the area.

With no end to the Falklands dispute in sight, it is worth examining how further deterioration in the countries relationship may affect business and trade. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Emerging markets, Financial services, Latin America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Western Europe, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: Argentina • Atlantic Ocean • David Cameron • Falkland Islands • HMS Dauntless • Latin America • Ministry of Defence • South America

Iraqi Sunnis end parliament boycott – but instability continues

On January 30, 2012,

Earlier today, Iraqiya, the main Iraqi political bloc catering to the country’s Arab Sunni minority, ended their boycott of the country’s parliament.

“As a good-will gesture, Iraqiya announces its return to Parliament meetings to create a healthy atmosphere to help the national conference, and to seek guarantees for the conference to succeed and defuse the political crisis,” the Iraqiya spokeswoman, Maysoon al-Damluji said.

The end of the parliamentary boycott will reduce fears that Iraq was at risk of returning to sectarian violence. The boycott began in mid-December when Iraqiya accused Iraq’s Shia prime minister of ordering the arrest and harrassment of many of its key members. Tensions had escalated further when the government issued an arrest warrant for Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi.

However, as Maplecroft’s latest Country Risk Report on Iraq explains, the end of the boycott does little to reduce long-term tensions between Iraq’s various sectarian and ethnic groups, and it has in fact strengthened Iraq’s Shia parties at the expense of the Sunni opposition:

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Economics, Emerging markets, Middle East and North Africa, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Reputational risk, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: al-Qaeda • Iraq • Iraqi National Movement • Maysoon al-Damluji • Patriotic Union of Kurdistan • Shia Islam • Sunni Islam • Tariq al-Hashimi

Romney-Gingrich battle puts spotlight on Republicans’ economic and foreign policies

On January 27, 2012,

Mitt Romney still looks likely to win the Republican candidacy

By Mark McClelland

The identity of President Obama’s adversary in the presidential election in November 2012 remains shrouded in uncertainty after the contest for the Republican presidential nomination took a dramatic twist on 21 January.

Newt Gingrich, the fiery conservative and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, claimed a surprise victory in the South Carolina primary, winning 40% of the vote. After coming a close second in Iowa and winning New Hampshire, Mitt Romney, the more moderate former governor of Massachusetts, had been widely expected to gain the nomination by a further victory in South Carolina.

With the Republican race growing tighter, increasing interest has focused on the rival candidates’ economic and foreign policies. Although President Obama remains the favourite to win November’s election – especially with the improving trend in US economic data – both Romney and Gingrich offer an economic, energy and foreign policy platform that is quite distinct from that offered by the president: (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Climate change and environmental, Construction, Economics, Elections, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Financial services, Healthcare, ICT and engineering, Mining, North America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Supply chain risk, Sustainability, Transportation and logistics, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: Barack Obama • Gingrich • Mark McClelland • Mitt Romney • Newt Gingrich • Obama • Republican • Romney • United States

Maplecroft warns of escalating conflict risk in Syria

On January 26, 2012,

In the last 48 hours, events in Syria have clearly taken a turn for the worse. Key Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have withdrawn their representatives from the struggling Arab League observer mission to the country, effectively dooming the mission to outright failure.

Separately a senior official from the Syrian branch of the Red Crescent (the regional arm of the International Committee of the Red Cross) was shot dead yesterday while travelling between Damascus and the town of Idlib, indicating the rapidly spiralling nature of the conflict.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported on the disturbing rise in sectarian kidnappings in the city of Homs, one of the hubs of the Sunni-led uprising against Bashar al-Assad’s Shia-dominated regime.

The Associated Press today quoted a Maplecroft analyst warning that violence was likely to continue to increase:

“Despite the limited impact of the mission, violence is likely to increase as inspectors are withdrawn,” the Britain-based group said. “Division amongst the armed resistance may also lead to a spike in attacks against regime forces as different factions attempt to assert authority through success on the battlefield.”

This analysis is expanded on in Maplecroft’s latest ‘Global Risks Forecast’ report which this week takes a deeper look at unfolding events in Syria:

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Economics, Emerging markets, Financial services, Healthcare, Human rights, ICT and engineering, Middle East and North Africa, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Reputational risk, Sustainability, Transportation and logistics, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: Arab League • Bashar al-Assad • Damascus • Free Syrian Army • Politics of Syria • Saudi Arabia • Syria • Syrian government

UK parliament examines new EU transparency legislation and its impact on business

On January 25, 2012,

'Resource curse' map 2012: Highlights countries where an abundance of natural resources risks undermining economic development

By James Smither

Yesterday I attended a UK parliamentary hearing about new EU legislation that would require extractives companies to disclose the payments they make to governments around the world.

A self-conscious European response to the US Dodd-Frank Act, the planned amendments to the EU’s Transparency and Accounting Directives go beyond their American counterpart in a couple of key respects: firstly by including the logging industry within their remit alongside mining and oil and gas, and secondly by mandating reporting by private as well as publicly-listed companies registered in member-states.

The hearing heard critiques of the proposed reforms from representatives of both business and civil society. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

Tagged with: All-Party Parliamentary Group on the Great Lakes Region of Africa • Directives • Dodd-Frank • Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act • European Commission • European Union • Government • Government-owned corporation • Law • Member state of the European Union • Multilateral • Parliament of the United Kingdom • The All-Party Parliamentary Group on International Corporate Responsibility • United States

Five key environmental issues for 2012

On January 24, 2012,

By Dr James Allan

In 2011, several key environmental events caused major challenges for business. These included the Japanese tsunami, floods inThailand, the delay to the Keystone XL pipeline in the US, and Australia’s carbon tax.

The following list highlights Maplecroft’s assessment of key environmental issues for 2012 (see the map on the right for their locations).

1. The changing regulatory landscape. At local, national, regional and international levels, significant changes to environmental governance and regulation are likely to emerge in 2012. For example: customary land groups assuming ownership of mineral, and oil and gas rights (1); residents using judicial means to hold polluters to account (2); emerging regional marine legislation and regulations to address deep sea mining practice (3); and new forms of global environmental governance developing at the Earth Summit 2012 in June (4).

2. Water scarcity. Droughts are expected to affect 2012 crops in Eastern Europe and South America (5). Diminishing non-replenishable water sources may hinder development efforts in the Middle East and North Africa (6) while negotiation of resource rights between upstream and downstream countries likely to become an increasing source of regional tensions (7). Falling water tables in some of the world’s largest grain producers (8) are also cause for serious concern in 2012.

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

Tagged with: Africa • Arctic • Greenhouse gas • James Allan • Javan Rhinoceros • National park • Shale gas • South Africa • Vietnam

Indonesia regains investment grade status but reputational risks remain

On January 20, 2012,

Indonesia reached a key economic milestone this week when Moody’s Investor Services, a key global credit rating agency, restored the country to ‘investment grade’ status.

Last month, Fitch’s Ratings similarly raised Indonesia to investment grade. Indonesia has been rated at ‘junk’ level since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

The upwards ratings shift are only the latest good news for Indonesia.

Just yesterday, the Indonesian government announced the country had recieved $19.3bn of foreign investment during 2011. This represents an 18 percent increase on the previous year.

The government has said Indonesia is expected to see GDP growth of over 6 percent during 2012.

But while Indonesia, with its abundant natural resources and its educated and urbanising population, is of increasing interest to investors, it remains challenging: It has poor infrastructure, a still developing democracy, and corruption, property rights and corporate governance complicate even basic commerical transactions.

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

Tagged with: 1997 Asian financial crisis • Aceh • China • Economic growth • Fitch • Indonesia • Jakarta • Standard & Poor • United States • West Papua

Egypt’s Islamists torn between popularism and economic reality

On January 19, 2012,

The last few days have provided fresh news about the poor state of the Egyptian economy. Yesterday, the IMF described the economy as ‘facing severe difficulties’ and said it would need sustained international assistance.

Today, Egypt’s tourism minister added to the gloom by saying that the number of tourists visiting Egypt had dropped by over a third during 2011, with revenue from tourism falling from $12.5bn to $8.8bn. Tourism is one of Egypt’s main sources of revenue and foreign exchange.

The Egyptian government additionally estimates an annual deficit of 134 billion Egyptian pounds ($22 billion), or 8.6 percent of gross domestic product, in the year to June 30, 2012.

In this context, Egypt’s Islamists – now the dominant force in Egyptian politics – are now hurriedly laying out their economic policies, in a bid to prove themselves both to domestic constituency and to foreign institutions and governments.

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Corruption, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, Financial services, Healthcare, ICT and engineering, Legal and regulatory, Middle East and North Africa, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Transportation and logistics, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: al-Nour • Egypt • Egyptian pound • FJP • Hosni Mubarak • Mohamed Gouda • Muslim Brotherhood

Maplecroft’s latest ‘Ethical Insight’ briefing highlights Aung San Suu Kyi calls for investment

On January 18, 2012,

For over 20 years, Aung San Suu Kyi, the often-imprisoned leader of Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement, has been the public face of opposition to the country’s military junta.

On 5th January, however, she made waves by calling for ‘good investments’ by foreign companies in Myanmar, even as anti-regime NGO’s such as the UK-based Burma campaign continued to argue against any ‘pre-mature’ lifting of sanctions until political reform is complete.

This week’s edition of ‘Ethical Insight’, Maplecroft’s fortnightly review of corporate responsibility news and analysis, looks at Suu Kyi’s appeal for responsible foreign investment and puts it in context of recent events in Myanmar.

It also examines the challenges that foreign business and investors, long-spooked by the country’s poor international reputation and opaque business climate, could face in entering the country as it continues to open up to foreign investment.

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

Tagged with: Aung San Suu Kyi • Burma • Government • Human rights • Irrawaddy River • Myanmar • Thailand

Today’s Kazakhstan election protests: Assessing their significance for business

On January 17, 2012,

Small anti-government protests took place in the capital of oil- and gas- rich Kazakhstan today as the country’s only genuine opposition parties accused the government of effectively shutting them out of the country’s recent legislative elections.

Although the protesters’ may have had a point (the ruling party took 81 percent of the vote and its political allies a further 15 percent), opposition turn-out was poor, numbering only 100 demonstrators.

Reuters reported that these protesters symbolically burnt copies of the voting results and then departed peacefully, watched by large numbers of police.

But while Kazakhstan may not be at imminent risk of an ‘Arab Spring’ style uprising, the country still poses considerable political and reputational risks for international business looking to exploit the country’s vast and easy-to-reach oil and gas reserves, or its rich deposits of other commodities such as uranium.

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Corruption, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, Eurasia, Human rights, Labour standards, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Reputational risk, Supply chain risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: BBC • Kazakh • Kazakhstan • Miklós Haraszti • Nur Otan • Nursultan Nazarbayev • Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe • Reuters • Soviet Union • Zhanaozen

« Previous Entries

UK and Argentina clash over Falklands: What are the risks for business?

Iraqi Sunnis end parliament boycott – but instability continues

Romney-Gingrich battle puts spotlight on Republicans’ economic and foreign policies

Maplecroft warns of escalating conflict risk in Syria

UK parliament examines new EU transparency legislation and its impact on business

Five key environmental issues for 2012

Indonesia regains investment grade status but reputational risks remain

Egypt’s Islamists torn between popularism and economic reality

Maplecroft’s latest ‘Ethical Insight’ briefing highlights Aung San Suu Kyi calls for investment

Today’s Kazakhstan election protests: Assessing their significance for business

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