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Somalia: The last oil and gas frontier?

On February 28, 2012,

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Somalia's antiquated port infrastructure is in often in a poor state of repair (Image credit: Expertinfantry via Flickr)

In recent week, Somalia’s government has scored several important successes against al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda aligned Somalia militant organisation. The group has been driven out of Mogadishu, the Somalia capital, and from much surrounding territory, cutting the group off from its most important sources of funding. Although the group has fallen back on its last remaining stronghold, the port-city of Kismayo, its fighters are reportedly fleeing to Kenya and Yemen.

However, Al-Shabaab has disputed reports of this reversal of fortune, promising to emerge victorious, formally allying itself with al-Qaeda and additionally claiming to be extending its reach into Puntland, a largely-stable autonomous province in northern Somalia. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: 2014 • Al-Shabaab • alqaeda • East Africa • forecast • future • gas • Horn of Africa • James Brandon • Kenya • LNG • Mogadishu • oil • Puntland • Somalia • Somaliland • Turkish Red Crescent
 

FARC promise to halt kidnappings unlikely to reduce Colombia risks

On February 27, 2012,

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Colombia's mountainous terrain and forests continue to facilitate guerilla activity

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) announced yesterday that they would cease to engage in kidnap for ransom and would release the ten members of Colombia’s security forces who they are currently holding hostage.

A statement from Farc’s secretariat, the group’s highest body, said on Sunday that: ‘Much has been said about the kidnapping of civilians for financial goals, which we, the Farc carry out to finance our struggle … We’re announcing that from now the practice will cease and that said part of Law 002…has therefore been repealed.’

The group seems likely to have chosen to announce an end to kidnappings in an attempt to open the door to talks with the government. In the wake of its execution of four hostages during an army rescue attempt in December, it also seems calculated to improve its public image. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Emerging markets, Human rights, Latin America, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
 

Mozambique gas finds spark global interest

On February 23, 2012,

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Recent discoveries of giant gas fields off the coast of Mozambique have created excitement among global oil and gas extractors as well as sparking a bidding war between them for control over the smaller firms that discovered many of the fields.

In a sign of how highly the fields are valued, Shell has bid $1.6bn for Cove Energy, which has important stakes in some of the most important offshore gas fields.

The Mozambique gas finds are particularly important in light of China and India’s growing energy requirements, and in view of the ongoing instability in North Africa and the Middle East, the most important sources of global hydrocarbons products. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Supply chain risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Africa • Middle East • Mozambique • Natural gas • North Africa • Royal Dutch Shell • Shell • Transparency International
 

Analysis: US and Mexico reach landmark agreement on offshore drilling

On February 22, 2012,

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Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico remains highly controversial following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (Image Credit: Deepwater Horizon Response)

Opportunities for hydrocarbon exploitation in the Gulf of Mexico look set to expand following an agreement between Mexico and the US to open up part of the western Gulf to oil and gas companies.

The agreement lifts a moratorium on drilling in an area that is expected to contain 172m barrels of oil in addition to significant reserves of natural gas.

Event

On 20 February 2012, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, and Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa met in Los Cabos, Mexico, to sign the US-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement, opening up a significant part of the western Gulf of Mexico to offshore hydrocarbon drilling. As a result, approximately 1.5m acres of the US continental shelf – previously covered by a drilling moratorium – will now be available to oil and gas companies to exploit. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Climate change and environmental, Emerging markets, Latin America, Legal and regulatory, North America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Reputational risk, Supply chain risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Deepwater Horizon • Deepwater Horizon oil spill • drilling • gas • Gulf • Gulf of Mexico • Mexico • oil • Patricia Espinosa • Persian Gulf • United States
 

Senegal election unrest underscores political fragility

On February 21, 2012,

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Despite its lack of natural resources, Senegal has been one of the most stable countries in West Africa. (Image credit: eutrophication&hypoxia via Flickr)

Rising protests in Senegal ahead of the country’s presidential elections underscore the country’s potential political fragility despite its reputation as one of Africa’s most democratic and stable nations.

Over the weekend further violence broke out between protesters and police in the capital and other cities, leading to the deaths of three more demonstrators. Protestors blamed the police for firing on the anti-government protests, while a government spokesman blamed opposition groups for encouraging ‘urban guerilla warfare’.

Opposition parties, although divided, were already angry that President Wade, Senegal’s 85-year old-year leader, had decided to run for a third-term, after a court overturned apparent constitutional limits. The protestor’s deaths over the weekend have increased fears that Wade is growing intolerant of dissent and renewed concerns that he might even resort to electoral fraud in order to secure re-election. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Corruption, Elections, Emerging markets, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Abdoulaye Wade • Africa • Dakar • election • Election Monitor • Idrissa Seck • Senegal • Sierra Leone • vote • Wade • West Africa
 

Al-Qaeda and Iran – a relationship defined by pragmatism

On February 20, 2012,

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Despite important religious differences, Iran views al-Qaeda as a potential ally against the US (Photo credit: Kamshots via Flickr).

By Anthony Skinner

US officials said in early February they believe that Tehran has granted five senior al-Qaeda operatives greater breathing space and assistance in Iran. According to western intelligence reports, members of al-Qaeda’s management council may no longer be under house arrest and be allowed to leave the country. These individuals, who advise core al-Qaeda in the Af/Pak region, have reportedly been granted greater financial, material and logistical support.

While this information is difficult to verify, it is likely that Tehran is seeking to expand its limited relationship with the militant Islamist network. Iran may want to use its relationship with al-Qaeda as another tool with which to deter a potential Israeli air strike (with possible US assistance) against its nuclear facilities. Although relations between Iran and al-Qaeda may strengthen in the coming months and possibly years, the network will not become a puppet of Tehran. A number of considerations are relevant in this regard: (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Middle East and North Africa, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Anthony Skinner
 

Why piracy is increasing in the Gulf of Guinea

On February 17, 2012,

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Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. Dots show incidents, blue lines show key shipping routes. Click for a full size map.

A spate of pirate attacks on ships in the Gulf of Guinea has raised fears that the west coast of Africa may be becoming a new haven for piracy, even as the international community struggles to contain the pirate threat in Somalia. Underscoring this new pirate threat, on Monday two crewmen on a oil tanker were killed after their ship was boarded by pirates off Nigeria.

It was recently estimated that the total annual cost of Somali piracy was $7-10 billion. Maplecroft looks behind these troubling events to explain why piracy in the Gulf of Guinea region is increasing.

What’s changed in the last year?

  • Attacks have increasingly spread across a broader region and further out to sea, although many incidents continue to occur near ports. Although it is difficult to identify a single cause of the upward trend in incidents, ongoing tensions related to the 2009 Niger Delta Amnesty and higher prices for oil on global markets over the past year are likely to be factors. Higher oil prices on the domestic market following a reduction in subsidies in January 2012 may also prove an added incentive to target oil cargoes. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Emerging markets, Mapping, Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Africa • Benin • Boko Haram • Congo • Gulf of Guinea • Niger Delta • Nigeria • Piracy • Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea • pirates • Somalia
 

Maplecroft’s new Greenland report explains high investor interest

On February 16, 2012,

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Map showing Greenland's offshore hydrocarbons concessions

This morning Maplecroft issued a new Country Risks Report on Greenland, focusing on opportunites and risks in the territory’s mining and oil and gas sector.

Just a few years ago, issuing a report on Greenland’s investment prospect would have seemed willfully quixotic, akin to issuing a report on lunar agricultural opportunities.

Today, however, driven by a combination of high and rising commodity prices, improved technology and a Greenland government that is keen to encourage foreign investment, Greenland is increasingly on the agenda of both junior and well established extractive businesses.

Leaving aside the potential financial inventives offered by Greenland’s vast and largely unexplored oil, gas and mineral deposits , there are several factors that help to explain this intense interest in Greenland:

1. Strong regulatory framework. Although Greenland is still developing its legal frameworks as it gradually wins more autonomy from Denmark, legislation governing its natural resources is largely clear and transparent, with uncertainty currently existing only around the contentious issue of extracting radioactive materials.

2. Attractive business environment: Greenland’s government has rapidly worked to create a welcoming business environment for investors. Corporate tax at 31.8% is comparable with other countries and other initiatives – such as industry-relevant training programmes for local workers are also important. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Corruption, Economics, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Human rights, Labour standards, Legal and regulatory, Mining, North America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Reputational risk, Supply chain risk, Sustainability, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Angola • Business • Child labour • Denmark • Greenland • Iraq • Latin America
 

Will capture of Shining Path leader alter Peru business risks?

On February 15, 2012,

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Peru's military have scored another success against Shining Path (Photo credit: Powless via Flickr)

The capture last week by the Peruvian government of Florindo Eleuterio Flores-Hala – one of the key remaining leaders of the Shining Path insurgency – made headlines around the world, briefly pushing Peru and Shining Path back into the international spotlight.

During the 1980s the Shining Path group followed an explicitly Maoist political agenda and controlled large parts of rural Peru, making the organisation briefly one of the world’s most prominent Communist guerilla movements.

Conflict between the group and the government, killing thousands in the 1980s and ’90s, however steadily sapped the group’s popularity, while political and economic reforms by the government, assisted by harsh counterinsurgency measures during the administration of Alberto Fujimori, steadily drove a wedge between the group and its original support base. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Elections, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, Financial services, Healthcare, ICT and engineering, Latin America, Mining, Political risk, Supply chain risk, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Alberto Fujimori • Associated Press • copper • economy • gdp • Gold • Growth • Huallaga Valley • insurgency • James Brandon • Lima • Maoism • Maoist • Ollanta Humala • opportunity • Peru • Peruvian government • Shining Path • South America • violence
 

Bahrain nervousness hints at continuing political tensions

On February 14, 2012,

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A mosque in Bahrain. Photo credit: Gorski via Flickr

Armoured vehicles patrolled Bahrain’s capital today and small scale clashes took place between police and protestors on the first anniversary of the start of a failed Shia-led up rising against the country’s Sunni-dominated government.

According to the BBC, large parts of the capital Manama were additionally sealed off to prevent protesters from reaching the former focal point of last year’s demonstrations, the now-demolished Pearl Roundabout.

The heavy security presence and the scattered clashes are a reminder that Bahrain remains tense and potentially explosive, divided between its Shia majority and the ruling Sunni minority.

Since last year’s unrest, the Bahraini government claims to have begun implementing a number of political, social and economic reforms. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Corruption, Economics, Middle East and North Africa, Oil and gas, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Bahrain • Bahrain Defence Force • BBC • Formula One • Manama • Middle East • Pearl Roundabout • Shia Islam
 
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