Mexican elections likely to mark return of the PRI to power

On June 27, 2012,

Mexican elections likely to mark return of the PRI to power

By Irenea Renuncio

As Mexico heads for general elections on 1 July, frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is likely to bring the party back to power. Although questions remain over the PRI’s authoritarian record during its 71-year rule (1929-2000) voters are likely to vote for the “devil you know” and punish the ruling National Action Party (PAN) for the increase in drug-related violence witnessed over the past six years.

Peña Nieto of the PRI has an advantage of more than 10 percentage points over his main rivals, Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and is poised to become Mexico’s next president.

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Elections, Emerging markets, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: corruption • drug violence • elections • Mexico

Analysis: Paraguay political crisis to raise business risks

On June 22, 2012,

The Paraguayan parliament has voted to subject the president to a political trial.

By David Franco

Following the 15 June deadly clashes between security forces and land dwellers in Paraguay, President Fernando Lugo is being subjected to a political trial that could see him impeached as early as today.

Shockwaves of the 15 June incidents are being felt everywhere in Paraguay. A day after the incidents, in an attempt to placate accusations of political mismanagement, President Lugo ordered the replacement of Interior Minister Carlos Filizzola and sacked National Police chief General Paulino Rojas.

However, internal divisions became manifest as several ministers belonging to the Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA) – which has the biggest representation in the ruling leftist coalition- left the government, expressing their dissatisfaction with the President. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Myanmar analysis: Aung San Suu Kyi on the importance of the rule of law and responsible investment

On June 22, 2012,

Myanmar leaders hope international investment will allow Myanmar to rapidly develop.

By Tim Williams

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi emphasised the need for greater rule of law in Myanmar at a roundtable discussion hosted by the Burma Justice Committee and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) on 19 June 2012.

At the event Suu Kyi emphasised the importance of rule of law in attaining national reconciliation in the country whose nominally civilian government only embarked on wide reforms in 2011, moving away from the military dictatorships which had ruled the country since 1962.

Furthermore, she said that only through rule of law would it be possible to solve the numerous ethnic conflicts in the country and to address the issue of statelessness underlying recent violence in Rakhine State.

Without the rule of law and the implementation of procedures which can guarantee justice, democracy and viable reforms will remain elusive, she explained. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Asia Pacific, Economics, Elections, Financial services, ICT and engineering, Labour standards, Legal and regulatory, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Reputational risk, Sustainability, Transportation and logistics, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: Asia • Aung San Suu Kyi • Burma • ethical investing • London School of Economics • Myanmar • politics • Rakhine State • reform • responsible investing • Suu Kyi • Tim Williams

Clashes over land dispute pose challenges to agricultural industry in Paraguay

On June 20, 2012,

In parts of Paraguay, as in many other Latin American countries, pressure on land and resources can be acute.

On 15 June, clashes between Paraguayan security forces and landless peasants resulted in the deaths of nine protesters and six members of the security forces.

The confrontation took place during an attempt by the police to evict a large group of rural dwellers from a private rural estate in the colony of Ybyrá Pyta, Canindeyú, approximately 240km north of the capital Asuncion.

According to official statements, one of the protesters opened fire while the police attempted to evict more than one hundred families said to have occupied the land, leading to more general violence.

Attorney general Ninfa Aguilar said that members of the terrorist group Paraguayan People’s Army (EPP) might have been amongst the protesters; although this was contradicted by the country’s Minister of Interior. In practice, it is highly unlikely the EPP took part in the incidents as it usually operates in the country’s north. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Construction, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Human rights, Latin America, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Supply chain risk, Sustainability, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: Asuncion • Canindeyú Department • Fernando Lugo • Interior ministry • land reform • Latin America • Paraguay • Paulino Rojas • protests • violent • World Bank

Tanzania: Risks and opportunities for oil and gas investors

On June 19, 2012,

Tanzania: Risks and opportunities for oil and gas investors

Following recent major offshore oil and gas finds in Mozambique, oil firms are increasingly focusing their attention Tanzania, further north on the east African coast, but with a similar geological hydrocarbons profile.

In recent weeks, a series of major oil and gas finds in Tanzania have been announced. In June 2012, Statoil announced a second major offshore gas discovery, following a March announcement by UK-based Ophir Energy of the discovery of 3.4tn cubic feet of recoverable gas in the first stage of its exploration programme in Block 1.

These and other finds have caused Tanzania’s estimates of known reserves of recoverable natural gas to triple, according to a statement issued by Tanzania’s Energy and Minerals Minister on 19th July.

(more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: Energy • exploration • gas • Julius Nyerere • Mozambique • Natural gas • offshore • oil • Ophir Energy • Statoil • Tanzania • Zanzibar

Analysis: Violence and conflict risks in Mali

On June 19, 2012,

Tuareg rebels in Mali now control much of the country's north.

Formerly a relatively stable and robustly democratic country, Mali has been thrown into chaos after an uprising by the Tuareg minority in the north in turn sparked a military coup and led to increased al-Qaeda involvement in the country.

This upsurge in violence has had knock-on effects on business, reducing investor confidence and disrupting trade and exports.

So far, however, the country’s important lucrative gold mines in the south-east remain largely unaffected by the recent troubles and briefly-imposed sanctions against the country have now been lifted. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Emerging markets, Human rights, Mining, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Supply chain risk, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: al-Qaeda • Blaise Compaoré • Burkina Faso • conflict • Islamism • Mali • Risk • Sharia • Tuareg • Tuareg people

Analysis: Shining Path faction poses increasing threat to Peru oil and gas operations

On June 14, 2012,

Peru's rugged terrain has complicated government efforts to tackle remnants of the Shining Path movement.

By Daisy Johnson

On 6 June 2012, an estimated 30 guerrillas associated with Peruvian insurgent group the Shining Path raided the local pipeline company Transportadora de Gas del Peru’s (TGP) base camp in the Echarate district of south-central Cusco department.

Nineteen gas workers and a helicopter pilot were temporarily held hostage during the attack. The assailants left behind a letter maintaining that they would respect both foreign and national investment projects in the region, but warning workers against collaborating with state security forces.

This appears to be a significant departure from the rebels’ previous position in which they rejected the presence of oil companies in the Alto Huallaga (Upper Huallaga) valley and the Apurimac and Ene River Valley (Valle de los Ríos Apurímac y Ene; VRAE) region. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Corruption, Emerging markets, Latin America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: Camisea • Camisea Gas Project • Daisy Johnson • Echarate District • Ene River • gas • Investment • oil • opportunity • Peru • Political risk • Shining Path • terrorism • VRAE

New Labour Standards Report on Brazil highlights forced labour risks

On June 12, 2012,

The forestry and agriculture industry in Brazil is particularly at risk of forced labour abuses.

On 23 May 2012, the Brazilian Parliament passed a constitutional amendment to impose harsher penalties for landowners and employers that expose workers to slavery-like working conditions.

The amendment permits the government to seize properties of those guilty of forced labour without compensation. In addition to losing property, offenders will be fined and could potentially be sent to jail for up to eight years.

As Maplecroft’s new Labour Standards Report on Brazil - released this week – makes clear, slavery and other forms of forced labour continue to pose substantial risks to many firms working in Brazil, across a range of industries from agriculture to manufacturing. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Girls Discovered: Global maps of adolescent girls

On June 8, 2012,

In many states, laws and cultural practices still discriminate heavily against females (Image credit: Kate Fisher via Flickr)

Maplecroft CEO Alyson Warhurst, spoke this week at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East, North Africa and Eurasia 2012 on the current global youth unemployment crisis and what can be done to remedy the situation.

The interview, which can be found here, focuses on adolescent girls and what can be done to aid their employment prospects, in terms of education and entrepreneurial activities.

In 2010, it was estimated by the U.N that there were almost 870million adolescent (aged 10-24 years old) girls on the planet, accounting for 12.7% of the global population. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

Tagged with: Adolescence • Developing country • discrimination • girls • Girls Discovered • labour • Middle East • Nike Foundation • North Africa • United Nations Foundation • United States • woman • World Economic Forum

Analysis: Papua New Guinea leadership dispute threatens institutions and stability

On June 6, 2012,

Papua New Guinea's rich natural resources are of increasing interest to international investors.

Papua New Guinea’s parliament re-elected Peter O’Neill as the prime minister on 30 May 2012, a day after it again disqualified former-prime minister Michael Somare as a member of parliament on the grounds of his absence from three consecutive parliamentary sessions. The events, the most recent in a chain of disturbing political developments, look certain to create fresh uncertainty and risk for investors, at a time when firms are becoming increasingly interested in the country’s hydrocarbon and mineral potential.

The latest events occurred in response to a Supreme Court ruling on 21 May which decided that Somare should be reinstated as PNG’s prime minister. By subsequently disqualifying Somare, the parliament – where the majority supports O’Neill – was able to get around the court ruling, arguing that Somare cannot be reinstalled as he is no longer an MP. The prime ministerial vacancy then triggered the parliamentary vote, which O’Neill won for a third time since he first dislodged Somare in August 2011. (more…)

If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Asia Pacific, Corruption, Elections, Emerging markets, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown

Tagged with: elections • future risks • Member of Parliament • Michael Somare • Papua New Guinea • Peter O'Neill • PNG • Portable Network Graphics • Somare • stability • Supreme Court

« Previous Entries

Mexican elections likely to mark return of the PRI to power

Analysis: Paraguay political crisis to raise business risks

Myanmar analysis: Aung San Suu Kyi on the importance of the rule of law and responsible investment

Clashes over land dispute pose challenges to agricultural industry in Paraguay

Tanzania: Risks and opportunities for oil and gas investors

Analysis: Violence and conflict risks in Mali

Analysis: Shining Path faction poses increasing threat to Peru oil and gas operations

New Labour Standards Report on Brazil highlights forced labour risks

Girls Discovered: Global maps of adolescent girls

Analysis: Papua New Guinea leadership dispute threatens institutions and stability

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