In the last 48 hours, events in Syria have clearly taken a turn for the worse. Key Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have withdrawn their representatives from the struggling Arab League observer mission to the country, effectively dooming the mission to outright failure.

Separately a senior official from the Syrian branch of  the Red Crescent (the regional arm of the International Committee of the Red Cross) was shot dead yesterday while travelling between Damascus and the town of Idlib, indicating the rapidly spiralling  nature of the conflict.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported on the disturbing rise in sectarian kidnappings in the city of Homs, one of the hubs of the Sunni-led uprising against Bashar al-Assad’s Shia-dominated regime.

The Associated Press today quoted a Maplecroft analyst warning that violence was likely to continue to increase:

“Despite the limited impact of the mission, violence is likely to increase as inspectors are withdrawn,” the Britain-based group said. “Division amongst the armed resistance may also lead to a spike in attacks against regime forces as different factions attempt to assert authority through success on the battlefield.”

This analysis is expanded on in Maplecroft’s latest ‘Global Risks Forecast’ report which this week takes a deeper look at unfolding events in Syria:

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