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Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Latin America

On January 9, 2013,

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Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Latin America

Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Latin America

By Maplecroft’s Latin America Practice

Latin America remains an attractive destination for investment despite associated risks and challenges. In particular, the region boasts growing and increasingly sophisticated financial markets, high resource potential across a range of commodities including shale hydrocarbons, mining, and various crops, expanding consumer markets, and growing participation in globalised manufacturing supply chains.

Latin America’s appeal is reflected in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, which registered a total of US$154bn in 2011, 28% higher than in 2010, demonstrating the strength of the region’s recovery following the global financial crisis. FDI flows further remained high in the first half of 2012, with South America (mainly Chile, Peru, Colombia and Argentina) and the Caribbean compensating for a decline in Central America.

These figures show that investor appetite for investment in Latin America remains strong and the potential returns are high. Nevertheless, the outlook for growth in early 2013 looks less certain than previously, with Brazil in particular suffering a prolonged slowdown, and traditional risks look likely to be matched by new threats in Latin America’s largest economies. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Economics, Issues, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Brazil • Chavez • Colombia • Dilma Rousseff • expropriation • FARC • fdi • Fernandez • Institutional Revolutionary Party • Latin America • Mexico • oil • Peña Nieto • Political risk • protests • regulatory • resource nationalism • security • tax • United States • Venezuela
 

Strikes, boat seizures and debt default – Argentina’s Fernandez facing multiple challenges

On November 28, 2012,

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By Irenea Renuncio

Strikes, boat seizures and debt default – Argentina’s Fernadez facing multiple challenges

Strikes, boat seizures and debt default – Argentina’s Fernandez facing multiple challenges. Photo Wikimedia

Argentina’s President Cristina Fernandez has been having one bad week after another. In October anti-government protests were followed by the seizure of Argentina’s Navy cadet-training ship ARA Libertad in Ghana in a long-running dispute with US debt funds. In November, a New York court then ruled that the government must pay the US investors, described by Fernandez as ‘vulture funds’, which are pursuing Argentina over debt on which it defaulted in 2001. If the problems facing her government weren’t enough, on 20 November the country experienced the first general strike in ten years, followed by a 24-hour strike of oil workers in key hydrocarbon producing provinces: Neuquén, La Pampa and Río Negro.

Anti-government protests mount

On 13 September 2012 thousands of people took to the streets in the capital Buenos Aires and other major cities in the country to protest against the government of President Fernandez. The protests were prompted by discussions surrounding a possible reform of the Constitution to allow Fernandez to run for a third consecutive term in office in 2015. Fernandez has refused to explicitly reject rumours of constitutional reform, encouraging speculation that she will indeed seek a third term. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Latin America, Political risk, Reputational risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: ARA Libertad • Argentina • Buenos Aires • Cristina Fernández de Kirchner • Fernandez • Hugo Moyano • Thomas P. Griesa • United States
 

Uruguay’s marihuana law raises expectations for legalisation of drugs in Latin America

On October 31, 2012,

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By Irenea Renuncio

Uruguay’s marihuana law raises expectations for legalisation of drugs in Latin America

Uruguay’s marihuana law raises expectations for legalisation of drugs in Latin America

Uruguay’s President José Mujica has launched an unprecedented initiative in Latin America to allow the domestic production and sale of marihuana. Although the possession of the drug for personal use has already been decriminalised, Mujica – a former leftist guerrilla- presented in August a bill that will mark a turning point for the country, effectively regulating the supply of the drug. In Uruguay, famously known for having 3.2 million people and 13 million cows, the initiative has created controversy and attracted the attention of larger neighbours Argentina and Brazil.

On 29 October the government unveiled the details of the bill, known as “Normative framework to regulate the cannabis market” (“Marco normativo para regular el mercado de cannabis”). The bill, which has suffered some changes since initially launched in August, will allow the production of marihuana in state-certified shops and will permit the consumption of between 30 and 40 grams of the drug per consumer per month. Mujica’s Broad Left Front (FA) leftist coalition has announced that if the model works, the government will allow the regulated plantation of 150 hectares of cannabis to meet local consumption. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Issues, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Cannabis • Irenea Renuncio • José Mujica • Latin America • Montevideo • Tabaré Vázquez • Uruguay
 

Labour tensions increase in Argentina as popularity of President continues to dwindle.

On October 9, 2012,

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By Irenea Renuncio

Labour tensions increase in Argentina as popularity of President continues to dwindle.

Labour tensions increase in Argentina as popularity of President continues to dwindle.

On 6 October the union of private oil worker employees from Chubut province, which consists of more than 2,000 members, decided to launch a week-long strike to ask for a 25% salary rise. A few hours afterwards, a dispute between different factions of the union resulted in a shooting, leaving one wounded and one person detained. Private sector oil union workers are due to go to the polls on 30 November to choose a new representative while labour tensions are on the rise.

The strike takes place only a few months after the June violent protests in Cerro Dragón, which halted production at Pan American Energy. Cerro Dragon is Argentina’s biggest oil field and produces 15% of the country’s total daily oil output. The violent protests left severe damages and several security officers wounded, leading the Chubut authorities to declare a state of emergency. The level of vandalism and violence seen at the site was unusual, evidencing growing social tensions and labour-related risks for the industry.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Issues, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Buenos Aires • Chubut • Cristina Fernández de Kirchner • Fernandez • General Confederation of Labour • Hugo Moyano • Plaza de Mayo
 

Growing political risk in Argentina hinders attempts to attract investment

On August 22, 2012,

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Growing political risk in Argentina hinders attempts to attract investment

Growing political risk in Argentina hinders attempts to attract investment

By Irenea Renuncio

The Argentine government’s decision on 9 August to increase natural gas wellhead prices by 300% has gone mostly unnoticed by investors, who are increasingly worried about the country’s growing political risk. The business environment continues to deteriorate amid growing policy unpredictability and resource nationalism, which is further enhanced by the new Hydrocarbon Sovereignty Decree.

Increase of gas prices unlikely to calm investors

President Fernandez is trying to attract investment in the energy sector amidst growing concerns over the industry’s exposure to government intervention, which was marked by the April nationalisation of Repsol’s YPF shares. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Issues, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • CNOOC Limited • Energy industry • Fernandez • Petróleos de Venezuela • Repsol YPF • Venezuela • YPF
 

Venezuelan entry into MERCOSUR set to have strategic and business impact

On August 9, 2012,

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Venezuelan entry into MERCOSUR set to have strategic and business impact

Venezuelan entry into MERCOSUR set to have strategic and business impact

By James Lockhart-Smith

On 31 July, Venezuela formally joined the Common Southern Market (MERCOSUR), a South American trade bloc comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and until recently Paraguay. The presidents of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay had agreed to admit Venezuela at a summit on 28-29 June, at which they also suspended Paraguayan membership pending upcoming presidential elections in that country in April 2013. Indeed,  Venezuela’s entry into the regional trading bloc may prove to be the most significant consequence of the event that prompted Paraguay’s suspension in June – the rapid impeachment and removal from office of left-wing president Fernando Lugo earlier in the same month. This had been provoked by concern over his failure to manage escalating violence over land rights, and was seen by fellow MERCOSUR states as an unacceptable breach of democratic process. In this context, Venezuela’s move from associate to full member of the trade bloc, which had been blocked by the Paraguayan legislature, fulfils a long-held ambition of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. Lugo’s loss therefore became Chavez’s gain.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Elections, Issues, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Brazil • Fernando Lugo • MERCOSUR • Paraguay • Venezuela
 

Is there a rise in resource nationalism in Latin America?

On May 2, 2012,

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Bolivia's left-wing president, Evo Morales, has struggled to balance encouraging foreign investment with maintaining support from his voter base.

By Arthur Dhont

On 1 May, Bolivian President Evo Morales announced the nationalisation of Transportadores de Electricidad (TDE), a subsidiary of Spain’s Red Electrica Española, during his annual Workers’ Day speech.

Although a number of media outlets have already started to compare the TDE nationalisation with that of YPF in Argentina on 16 April , the two incidents are not linked and do not necessarily point to an increased risk of resource nationalism across the region as a whole.

Resource nationalism has certainly become increasingly visible amongst a number of leftist-governed Latin American countries, including not only Bolivia but also Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela.

On the other hand, however, the risk of expropriation remains low in other key countries in the region such as Chile, Colombia or Mexico. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Bolivia • Evo Morales • Latin America • Nationalization • Permanent Court of Arbitration • YPF • YPFB
 

New Falklands gas discoveries increase UK-Argentina tensions

On May 2, 2012,

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With the discovery of major oil and gas reserves, the Falklands Islands have acquired a new economic and political significance.

By Irenea Renuncio

On 23 April 2012 UK-based energy exploration company Borders & Southern announced a ‘significant gas condensate discovery’ in the South Falklands Basin.

Although Borders & Southern have said ‘it is too early to give an accurate resource estimate’, it also declared that the South Falklands Basin is likely to hold ‘significant volumes’ of gas at the basin’s Darwin well and described the basin’s potential as ‘exciting’.

Borders & Southern’s discovery is, however, overshadowed by growing tensions between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands. While the discovery highlights the potential for further significant oil and gas discoveries in the South Falklands Basin, it is also likely to further increase bilateral tensions over the islands. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Latin America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, Western Europe, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Borders & Southern • Falkland • Falkland Islands • Falkland Oil & Gas • gas • New York Stock Exchange • oil • opportunity • Political risk • Rockhopper Exploration • South America • threat • UK
 

Analysis: The likely impact of Argentina’s expropriation of YPF

On April 17, 2012,

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Argentina's move against YPF is partly driven by a desire for self-sufficiency in oil and gas

By Irenea Renuncio

After weeks of speculation, on 16 April Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández announced in a televised speech a bill to expropriate 51% of Repsol’s YPF shares. The bill, which is likely to be swiftly passed by the country’s Congress, caused great concern in Spain, where the Spanish multinational is headquartered.

Repsol had acquired YPF in 1993 and had subsequently operated its subsidiary with the blessing of Fernández and her late husband, former President Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007). However, relations between the government and the company had deteriorated in recent years, especially as oil and gas production declined as a result of dwindling investment. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Corruption, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Latin America, Legal and regulatory, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Cristina Fernández de Kirchner • gas • Investment • Néstor Kirchner • oil • Repsol • Repsol YPF • Risk • Spain • World Bank • YPF
 

Government interference in South American oil underlines risks to investors

On April 4, 2012,

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International oil firms operating off Brazil are suddenly finding themselves under close government scrutiny

In South America, two confrontations between foreign oil firms and the governments of Brazil and Argentina should serve as stark reminders for investors of the continuing challenges of operating in the continent.

In Brazil, prosecutors are attempting to ban two oil firms – US-based Chevron and Swiss-based Transocean Ltd, its contracted drill-rig operator – from working in the country. Bloomberg News reported that prosecutor Gisele Porto had asked that “the two companies must be suspended from operating until they stop environmental damage from the November leak off the coast of Rio de Janeiro.” (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Enterprise risk, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Latin America, Legal and regulatory, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Brazil • Campos Basin • Chevron • Chevron Corporation • Chubut Province • oil; gas • Rio de Janeiro • South America • Transocean • YPF
 
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