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Mexican elections likely to mark return of the PRI to power

On June 27, 2012,

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Mexican elections likely to mark return of the PRI to power

Mexican elections likely to mark return of the PRI to power

By Irenea Renuncio

As Mexico heads for general elections on 1 July, frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is likely to bring the party back to power. Although questions remain over the PRI’s authoritarian record during its 71-year rule (1929-2000) voters are likely to vote for the “devil you know” and punish the ruling National Action Party (PAN) for the increase in drug-related violence witnessed over the past six years.

Peña Nieto of the PRI has an advantage of more than 10 percentage points over his main rivals, Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN) and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and is poised to become Mexico’s next president.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Elections, Emerging markets, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: corruption • drug violence • elections • Mexico
 

Analysis: Papua New Guinea leadership dispute threatens institutions and stability

On June 6, 2012,

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Papua New Guinea's rich natural resources are of increasing interest to international investors.

 Papua New Guinea’s parliament re-elected Peter O’Neill as the prime minister on 30 May 2012, a day after it again disqualified former-prime minister Michael Somare as a member of parliament on the grounds of his absence from three consecutive parliamentary sessions. The events, the most recent in a chain of disturbing political developments, look certain to create fresh uncertainty and risk for investors, at a time when firms are becoming increasingly interested in the country’s hydrocarbon and mineral potential.

The latest events occurred in response to a Supreme Court ruling on 21 May which decided that Somare should be reinstated as PNG’s prime minister. By subsequently disqualifying Somare, the parliament – where the majority supports O’Neill – was able to get around the court ruling, arguing that Somare cannot be reinstalled as he is no longer an MP. The prime ministerial vacancy then triggered the parliamentary vote, which O’Neill won for a third time since he first dislodged Somare in August 2011. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Asia Pacific, Corruption, Elections, Emerging markets, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: elections • future risks • Member of Parliament • Michael Somare • Papua New Guinea • Peter O'Neill • PNG • Portable Network Graphics • Somare • stability • Supreme Court
 

After elections in the Dominican Republic, a return to business as usual?

On June 6, 2012,

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While tourism remains key to the Dominican Republic, its economy is diversifying into other areas.

By David Franco

On May 21st, with 51.21% of the total vote, Danilo Medina of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (DLP) secured a narrow victory in the Dominican Republic’s presidential elections amidst accusations that his party influenced the campaign through interference and vote rigging.

A former Secretary of State in two of three of Leonel Fernandez’s administrations (1996-2000 and 2004-2006), Medina ran as the continuation candidate cementing the DLP’s quasi hegemony in the Caribbean country. The opposition front-runner Hipolito Mejia, leader of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (DRP) and Dominican Republic’s President between 2000 and 2004, finally accepted defeat on May 23rd.

In a country where presidential elections are usually conducted in a climate of violence (for example, the presidential elections of 2008 resulted in several deaths and a number of injuries), the relatively low incidence of violent protests this time has come as a positive sign. However, the fact that Medina obtained such a narrow victory amidst what leading international organisations and observers have labelled as fraudulent practices during the election campaign raises questions about the state of the country’s fragile democracy.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Corruption, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, ICT and engineering, Latin America, Mining, Transportation and logistics, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Danilo Medina • Dominican Liberation Party • Dominican Republic • Dominican Revolutionary Party • elections • forecast • Hipólito Mejía • International Monetary Fund • Leonel Fernández • outcome • United States
 

Analysis: Corruption remains major risk to investors in Libya

On May 22, 2012,

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The Libyan government has suspending granting new oil contracts while it investigates Gaddafi-era corruption.

As Libya heads towards its first post-Gaddafi legislative elections in June 2012, the implementation of an anti-corruption framework is just one of many considerations facing both the current interim government and the eventual winner of the June election.

As Maplecroft’s new Libya Corruption Risk Briefing (released this week) found, large-scale corruption became deeply entrenched in Libya under the Gaddafi regime and continues to pose a range of financial, operational and legal challenges to companies operating or investing in the country.

The briefing concludes that companies operating in Libya cannot rely on the interim government to adequately address corruption and must instead implement their own internal compliance procedures to mitigate persistent corruption risks. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Corruption, Elections, Emerging markets, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Financial services, Healthcare, Legal and regulatory, Middle East and North Africa, Oil and gas, Political risk, Reputational risk, Sustainability, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: conflict • corruption • elections • Gaddafi • June • Libya • Libyan government • Muammar Gaddafi • National Transitional Council • NTC • oil and gas • Provisional government
 

No end to Mexico drug killings, as elections loom

On May 14, 2012,

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By Irenea Renuncio

On 13 May, a total of 49 mutilated bodies were found by the Mexican federal police along a highway in Cadereyta, a municipality bordering Monterrey, the industrial capital of Nuevo León state.

The mass murder has been attributed to the Zetas cartel, which has been fighting for the control of north-eastern border-states since it broke away from the Gulf cartel in 2010.

The turf war between the former allies left a record-high death toll in 2011, when a total of 1,750 drug-related murders took place in Nuevo León state alone. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Corruption, Elections, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Financial services, Healthcare, ICT and engineering, Latin America, Political risk, Supply chain risk, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: conflict • drugs • elections • Felipe Calderón • forecast • future • gangs • Jalisco • Latin America • Los Zetas Cartel • Mexico • Nuevo Laredo • Nuevo León • Risk • Sinaloa • Sinaloa Cartel • violence
 
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