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After elections in the Dominican Republic, a return to business as usual?

On June 6, 2012,

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While tourism remains key to the Dominican Republic, its economy is diversifying into other areas.

By David Franco

On May 21st, with 51.21% of the total vote, Danilo Medina of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (DLP) secured a narrow victory in the Dominican Republic’s presidential elections amidst accusations that his party influenced the campaign through interference and vote rigging.

A former Secretary of State in two of three of Leonel Fernandez’s administrations (1996-2000 and 2004-2006), Medina ran as the continuation candidate cementing the DLP’s quasi hegemony in the Caribbean country. The opposition front-runner Hipolito Mejia, leader of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (DRP) and Dominican Republic’s President between 2000 and 2004, finally accepted defeat on May 23rd.

In a country where presidential elections are usually conducted in a climate of violence (for example, the presidential elections of 2008 resulted in several deaths and a number of injuries), the relatively low incidence of violent protests this time has come as a positive sign. However, the fact that Medina obtained such a narrow victory amidst what leading international organisations and observers have labelled as fraudulent practices during the election campaign raises questions about the state of the country’s fragile democracy.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Corruption, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, ICT and engineering, Latin America, Mining, Transportation and logistics, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Danilo Medina • Dominican Liberation Party • Dominican Republic • Dominican Revolutionary Party • elections • forecast • Hipólito Mejía • International Monetary Fund • Leonel Fernández • outcome • United States
 

No end to Mexico drug killings, as elections loom

On May 14, 2012,

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By Irenea Renuncio

On 13 May, a total of 49 mutilated bodies were found by the Mexican federal police along a highway in Cadereyta, a municipality bordering Monterrey, the industrial capital of Nuevo León state.

The mass murder has been attributed to the Zetas cartel, which has been fighting for the control of north-eastern border-states since it broke away from the Gulf cartel in 2010.

The turf war between the former allies left a record-high death toll in 2011, when a total of 1,750 drug-related murders took place in Nuevo León state alone. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Corruption, Elections, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Financial services, Healthcare, ICT and engineering, Latin America, Political risk, Supply chain risk, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: conflict • drugs • elections • Felipe Calderón • forecast • future • gangs • Jalisco • Latin America • Los Zetas Cartel • Mexico • Nuevo Laredo • Nuevo León • Risk • Sinaloa • Sinaloa Cartel • violence
 

France’s presidential elections: Assessing likely impacts on business

On May 4, 2012,

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France's business community has been unsettled by anti-business rhetoric from François Hollande, the Socialist candidate

On Sunday 6 May, France will vote in the second round of presidential elections.

The first round of the elections in late April largely confirmed leading polls’ forecasts, with Socialist François Hollande coming out as the strongest candidate with a narrow majority of 28.63% of the vote, defeating current President Nicolas Sarkozy, who obtained 27.18%.

According to many polling forecasts, the second round is likely to lead to a widening of the gap between Sarkozy and his rival.  For instance, in the 22 April 2012 Ipsos/Logica Business Consulting poll, Hollande is predicted to win the second round with 54 % of votes cast. Sarkozy is forecasted to come second with 46%.

The prospect of a second-round victory for Hollande has concerned many investors and business, with many of his manifesto promises being perceived as anti-business. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Economics, Elections, Enterprise risk, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Financial services, ICT and engineering, Legal and regulatory, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, Western Europe, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Business • election • European Central Bank • forecast • France • François Hollande • future • Hollande • next • Nicolas Sarkozy • outcome • Risk • Sarkozy • Socialists • Sunday • vote
 

Somalia: The last oil and gas frontier?

On February 28, 2012,

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Somalia's antiquated port infrastructure is in often in a poor state of repair (Image credit: Expertinfantry via Flickr)

In recent week, Somalia’s government has scored several important successes against al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda aligned Somalia militant organisation. The group has been driven out of Mogadishu, the Somalia capital, and from much surrounding territory, cutting the group off from its most important sources of funding. Although the group has fallen back on its last remaining stronghold, the port-city of Kismayo, its fighters are reportedly fleeing to Kenya and Yemen.

However, Al-Shabaab has disputed reports of this reversal of fortune, promising to emerge victorious, formally allying itself with al-Qaeda and additionally claiming to be extending its reach into Puntland, a largely-stable autonomous province in northern Somalia. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: 2014 • Al-Shabaab • alqaeda • East Africa • forecast • future • gas • Horn of Africa • James Brandon • Kenya • LNG • Mogadishu • oil • Puntland • Somalia • Somaliland • Turkish Red Crescent
 

Nigeria: Behind the negative headlines, many opportunities for the brave investor

On February 8, 2012,

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Population density map 2012 (Source: Landscan, 2009)

By James Smither

Nigeria has not had an auspicious start to 2012. In addition to an at-times combustible general strike over the removal of fuel subsidies in January, a series of increasingly violent and frequent terrorist attacks linked to the Islamist Boko Haram group have also rocked cities across the north and centre of the country.

Combined with the social and security risks that impede oil production in the Delta region, entrenched public sector corruption and the country’s battles with its power supply, it’s easy to see why the country may not seem an obvious investment destination.

And yet, both many established global brands and emerging Asian giants continue to regard Nigeria as indispensable component of their emerging markets profile. Setting the oil and gas sector to one side, the country’s multinational champions putting money, jobs and facilities where their mouths are include Diageo and Coca-Cola, GSK and Lafarge, Nestlé and KFC, Mango and Wal-Mart, Toyota and Tata.

Clearly, for all the dirty bath-water associated with the country, there also remains a Nigerian baby whose potential has already captured the attention of many and whom investors may be well-advised not to eject too hastily.

What then, are the key drivers of such positive investor sentiment?

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Africa • African Development Bank • Boko Haram • Coca-Cola • forecast • Growth • Investment • James Smither • KFC • Lagos • Nigeria • Population • United Nations
 

Maplecroft’s presentation at Marsh NOC Dubai conference: Ten leading political risks for business for 2012

On February 7, 2012,

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This morning Maplecroft’s CEO Alyson Warhurst gave a speech at Marsh’s annual National Oil Companies conference in Dubai.

In her presentation, she identified the ten key political risks that international business and investors will face in 2012.

Key risks for 2012:

1. Continuing instability through 2012 in MENA region driven by popular frustration over pace of political and economic development. Bahrain, Libya and Syria will remain the key flashpoints; there is also the possibility of new unrest in Algeria and Morocco

2. Terrorism risk in MENA likely to increase during 2012. In several key countries such as Libya, Syria and Yemen, instability is creating new opportunities for terrorism. The regional al-Qaeda groupings, AQIM (in north and west Africa) and AQAP (most in Yemen) are likely key beneficiaries of this instability

3. Maplecroft’s Political Risk (Dynamic) Index additionally identifies the following countries as posing the highest political risks in 2012: (1) Somalia, (2) Myanmar, (3) DR Congo, (4) Afghanistan, (5) Sudan, (6) South Sudan, (7) Iraq, (8) Yemen, (9) Pakistan, (10) Central Africa Republic, (11) Nigeria, (12) Iran, (13) North Korea, (14) Libya, (15) Côte d’Ivoire, (16) Russia, (17) Zimbabwe, (18) POT, (19) Chad, (20) Syria (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Asia Pacific, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Eastern Europe, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, Eurasia, Financial services, Healthcare, ICT and engineering, Latin America, Middle East and North Africa, Mining, North America, Oil and gas, Political risk, South Asia, South-East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, Western Europe, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: 2012 • Africa • Alyson Warhurst • Congo • Dubai • forecast • instability • Key risks • leading risks • Libya • Marsh • Myanmar • Saudi Arabia • Syria • Yemen
 
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