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Oil revenues remain an elusive goal for South Sudan and Khartoum as cooperation agreements fall flat

On February 4, 2013,

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Oil revenues remain an elusive goal for South Sudan and Khartoum as cooperation agreements fall flat

Oil revenues remain an elusive goal for South Sudan and Khartoum as cooperation agreements fall flat

By Anna Osborne, Senior Africa Analyst

The most recent in a series of bilateral summits, held under the auspices of the Mbeki-led African Union High-level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), ended on 29 January. Yet again the Presidents of Sudan and South Sudan, Omar al-Bashir and Salva Kiir failed to reach an arrangement on mechanisms to implement the Cooperation Agreements signed in Addis Ababa in September 2012, frustrating international attempts to convince them of the benefits of doing so.

The two most controversial issues within the agreement, and the main sticking points, are reportedly that of the disputed areas of ‘Mile 14’ (a stretch of land bordering South Darfur in the North and Northern Bahr el Ghazal in the South claimed by both countries) and Abyei. Although both countries underline the economic significance of these two regions, the claims of oil deposits in the Mile 14 area are unsubstantiated and most of the oil fields fall outside of Abyei’s borders. Instead, these two areas are vital to the two leaders with waning domestic support because of their national symbolic importance. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Conflict, Oil and gas, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: conflict • oil
 

End of FARC ceasefire signals increased security risks – oil infrastructure targeted

On January 24, 2013,

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End of FARC ceasefire signals increased security risks – oil infrastructure targeted

End of FARC ceasefire signals increased security risks – oil infrastructure targeted

By James Lockhart-Smith

The end of the unilateral ceasefire, declared in November 2012 by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the country’s largest insurgent group, came to an end as scheduled on 20 January 2013, resulting in an immediate increase in operational security risks for foreign investors and a medium-term increase in political risks.

The FARC had committed itself to the unilateral measure amidst ongoing peace talks with the government in Havana, Cuba, without any reciprocation from state security forces. Data collected by non-governmental sources suggests that while the number of operations conducted by the group fell by 90% during the two-month period, the truce was not wholly observed. The end of the ceasefire was marked immediately by a renewed spate of FARC attacks across the country on both police and army personnel and hydrocarbon infrastructure. The security outlook is negative for businesses in 2013 – particularly oil and gas companies – and the stuttering peace process will increase the medium-term risk of a deteriorating business environment.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Conflict, Latin America, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Álvaro Uribe • Colombia • Cuba • FARC • Havana • infrastructure • Juan Manuel Santos • oil • peace talks • Political risk • Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia • Santos • terrorism
 

Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Middle East and North Africa

On January 10, 2013,

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Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Middle East and North Africa

Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Middle East and North Africa

By Maplecroft’s Mena Practice

A turbulent 2013 for the Middle East is expected. Two years after the Arab Spring uprisings began, the political and economic landscapes in the region remain extremely fragile, and the prospects of medium-term improvement are slim. The political transitions that started in 2011 are far from complete or certain, with significant challenges to stability expected in 2013. Political problems are also hindering economic reforms urgently required to improve ailing economics and avert further social unrest. Crucially, the conflict in Syria continues to impact the surrounding countries, increasing the risks of insecurity and terrorism spilling over Syria’s borders, and posing serious threats to those economies.

Egypt:

President Morsi’s government attempts to secure Islamist control over state institutions at the expense of much-needed political consensus continues to elevate political risk. The political acrimony that accompanied the passing of the controversial constitution in December 2012 entrenched an ever-widening political divide between liberal-secular groups and Islamists, and parliamentary elections due to be held in February 2013 are unlikely to improve political stability in the medium term. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Economics, Issues, Middle East and North Africa, Political risk, Regions, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Baghdad • economy • Egypt • fdi • Iraq • Justice and Development Party • KRG • Kurdistan • Kurdistan Regional Government • Libya • Middle East • morsi • oil • PKK • Political risk • Syria • terrorism • Turkey
 

Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Latin America

On January 9, 2013,

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Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Latin America

Maplecroft’s 2013 global outlook – Latin America

By Maplecroft’s Latin America Practice

Latin America remains an attractive destination for investment despite associated risks and challenges. In particular, the region boasts growing and increasingly sophisticated financial markets, high resource potential across a range of commodities including shale hydrocarbons, mining, and various crops, expanding consumer markets, and growing participation in globalised manufacturing supply chains.

Latin America’s appeal is reflected in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, which registered a total of US$154bn in 2011, 28% higher than in 2010, demonstrating the strength of the region’s recovery following the global financial crisis. FDI flows further remained high in the first half of 2012, with South America (mainly Chile, Peru, Colombia and Argentina) and the Caribbean compensating for a decline in Central America.

These figures show that investor appetite for investment in Latin America remains strong and the potential returns are high. Nevertheless, the outlook for growth in early 2013 looks less certain than previously, with Brazil in particular suffering a prolonged slowdown, and traditional risks look likely to be matched by new threats in Latin America’s largest economies. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Economics, Issues, Latin America, Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Brazil • Chavez • Colombia • Dilma Rousseff • expropriation • FARC • fdi • Fernandez • Institutional Revolutionary Party • Latin America • Mexico • oil • Peña Nieto • Political risk • protests • regulatory • resource nationalism • security • tax • United States • Venezuela
 

Tanzania: Risks and opportunities for oil and gas investors

On June 19, 2012,

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Tanzania: Risks and opportunities for oil and gas investors

Following recent major offshore oil and gas finds in Mozambique, oil firms are increasingly focusing their attention Tanzania, further north on the east African coast, but with a similar geological hydrocarbons profile.

In recent weeks, a series of major oil and gas finds in Tanzania have been announced. In June 2012, Statoil announced a second major offshore gas discovery, following a March announcement by UK-based Ophir Energy of the discovery of 3.4tn cubic feet of recoverable gas in the first stage of its exploration programme in Block 1.

These and other finds have caused Tanzania’s estimates of known reserves of recoverable natural gas to triple, according to a statement issued by Tanzania’s Energy and Minerals Minister on 19th July.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Energy • exploration • gas • Julius Nyerere • Mozambique • Natural gas • offshore • oil • Ophir Energy • Statoil • Tanzania • Zanzibar
 

Analysis: Shining Path faction poses increasing threat to Peru oil and gas operations

On June 14, 2012,

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Peru's rugged terrain has complicated government efforts to tackle remnants of the Shining Path movement.

By Daisy Johnson

On 6 June 2012, an estimated 30 guerrillas associated with Peruvian insurgent group the Shining Path raided the local pipeline company Transportadora de Gas del Peru’s (TGP) base camp in the Echarate district of south-central Cusco department.

Nineteen gas workers and a helicopter pilot were temporarily held hostage during the attack. The assailants left behind a letter maintaining that they would respect both foreign and national investment projects in the region, but warning workers against collaborating with state security forces.

This appears to be a significant departure from the rebels’ previous position in which they rejected the presence of oil companies in the Alto Huallaga (Upper Huallaga) valley and the Apurimac and Ene River Valley (Valle de los Ríos Apurímac y Ene; VRAE) region. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Corruption, Emerging markets, Latin America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Camisea • Camisea Gas Project • Daisy Johnson • Echarate District • Ene River • gas • Investment • oil • opportunity • Peru • Political risk • Shining Path • terrorism • VRAE
 

Analysis: Obama and Romney’s oil and gas policies compared

On May 9, 2012,

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Energy policy is quickly emerging as one of the defining issues of the 2012 US presidential campaign

Following the suspension of Rick Santorum’s campaign on 10 April, Mitt Romney will shortly be nominated as the Republican Party’s candidate to face President Obama in November’s US election.

Romney looks set to make energy policy the defining electoral issue of his campaign – opening up attacks on the president on a number of related fronts. The high price of gasoline at the pump across the United States in 2012 has particularly stoked discontent with Obama and has enabled Romney to launch a series of interlinked attacks on issues including gasoline prices, oil and gas drilling, energy independence and environmental policy.

Although there has been a slight reduction in the price of gasoline over the past month, prices remain very high at slightly below US$4 per gallon, it seems likely therefore that energy policy will become one of the defining issues of the 2012 presidential campaign. The following outlines the candidates’ key energy policies to date and explains how they differ: (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Climate change and environmental, Elections, North America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: election • gas • oil • president • shale
 

New Falklands gas discoveries increase UK-Argentina tensions

On May 2, 2012,

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With the discovery of major oil and gas reserves, the Falklands Islands have acquired a new economic and political significance.

By Irenea Renuncio

On 23 April 2012 UK-based energy exploration company Borders & Southern announced a ‘significant gas condensate discovery’ in the South Falklands Basin.

Although Borders & Southern have said ‘it is too early to give an accurate resource estimate’, it also declared that the South Falklands Basin is likely to hold ‘significant volumes’ of gas at the basin’s Darwin well and described the basin’s potential as ‘exciting’.

Borders & Southern’s discovery is, however, overshadowed by growing tensions between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands. While the discovery highlights the potential for further significant oil and gas discoveries in the South Falklands Basin, it is also likely to further increase bilateral tensions over the islands. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Latin America, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, Western Europe, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Borders & Southern • Falkland • Falkland Islands • Falkland Oil & Gas • gas • New York Stock Exchange • oil • opportunity • Political risk • Rockhopper Exploration • South America • threat • UK
 

Analysis: The likely impact of Argentina’s expropriation of YPF

On April 17, 2012,

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Argentina's move against YPF is partly driven by a desire for self-sufficiency in oil and gas

By Irenea Renuncio

After weeks of speculation, on 16 April Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández announced in a televised speech a bill to expropriate 51% of Repsol’s YPF shares. The bill, which is likely to be swiftly passed by the country’s Congress, caused great concern in Spain, where the Spanish multinational is headquartered.

Repsol had acquired YPF in 1993 and had subsequently operated its subsidiary with the blessing of Fernández and her late husband, former President Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007). However, relations between the government and the company had deteriorated in recent years, especially as oil and gas production declined as a result of dwindling investment. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Corruption, Economics, Elections, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, ESG (Ethical, social and governance), Latin America, Legal and regulatory, Oil and gas, Political risk, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Argentina • Cristina Fernández de Kirchner • gas • Investment • Néstor Kirchner • oil • Repsol • Repsol YPF • Risk • Spain • World Bank • YPF
 

Can new Kenyan pipeline save South Sudan’s oil?

On March 2, 2012,

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Landlocked South Sudan hopes that the quiet Kenyan port of Lamu will become its gateway to the world's oil markets (Image credit: Jeffhubbard via Flickr)

By Paul Gabriel

 On 2 March 2012 political leaders from South Sudan, Kenya and Ethiopia came together at the Kenyan port of Lamu to celebrate the start of construction work on a US$22.2bn infrastructure project.

The Lamu Port-South Sudan–Ethiopia (LAPSSET) Transport Corridor project aims to further integrate the three countries with new oil pipelines, an extended rail network, port facilities and telecommunication infrastructure.

Given the escalating tensions between South Sudan and Sudan, the first and most important part of the project will be the US$3.5bn expansion of the Lamu port to 20 berths and the construction of a US$4bn oil pipeline from Lamu to the South Sudanese oil fields. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Construction, Emerging markets, Oil and gas, Political risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Africa • China • exports • gas • Juba • Kenya • Khartoum • Lamu • oil • Port Sudan • Qatar • South Sudan • Sudan • Unity
 
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