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Egypt: Risk of instability severe as presidential run-off vote approaches

On May 31, 2012,

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Maplecroft’s Head of MENA, Anthony Skinner, analyses election scenarios and their implications for Egypt’s investment climate.

Maplecroft’s Head of MENA, Anthony Skinner, analyses election scenarios and their implications for Egypt’s investment climate.

Egypt’s political drama continues to unfold following the confirmation that conservative Islamist and Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi and member of the old guard Ahmed Shafiq will stand head-to-head in a June run-off vote for the presidency. That moderate Islamist candidates Abdel Moneim Abdoul Fotouh and Mohamed Selim al-Awwa, along with secular left-of-centre Hamdeen Sabahi did not acquire sufficient votes to place amongst the top two for the runoff is regrettable. One might say the same of former foreign minister and former secretary-general of the Arab League Amr Moussa who, despite serving under former President Hosni Mubarak, is less of a controversial figure than Shafiq. The two front-runners are likely to cause even greater political polarisation in Egypt. This is despite efforts by Morsi and Shafiq to widen their appeal to the broader Egyptian electorate.

(more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Political risk, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Ahmed Shafik • Egypt • Hamdeen Sabahi • Hosni Mubarak • Muslim Brotherhood • SCAF • Shafiq • Supreme Council of the Armed Forces
 

Close fought Egyptian elections creates uncertainty for investors

On May 22, 2012,

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The overthrow of President Mubarak last year, followed by months of street clashes and political uncertainty, has made foreign firms reluctant to invest in Egypt.

On Wednesday 23 May, Egypt will hold the first round of its first post-Mubarak presidential election. So far, the results are far from certain with up to 33% of the electorate undecided on which candidate to support.

The disqualification of 10 candidates including three leading non-centrist politicians has narrowed the field to 13. This may have in the medium and long term reduced a potential source of serious national polarisation – however, this is not to deny that political polarization persists. (more…)


If you would like to comment on this article, request further in-depth analysis, or contact the analyst for media comment please contact: blog@maplecroft.com

in Agri-business, Chemicals, manufacturing and retail, Construction, Corruption, Elections, Emerging markets, Enterprise risk, Financial services, Healthcare, ICT and engineering, Middle East and North Africa, Mining, Oil and gas, Political risk, Transportation and logistics, Uncategorized, by Jason McGeown
Tagged with: Ahmed Shafik • Amr Moussa • Arab League • Egypt • Election Monitors • Freedom and Justice • Freedom and Justice Party • Hosni Mubarak • Muslim Brotherhood • Supreme Council of the Armed Forces
 
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