Maplecroft’s Head of MENA, Anthony Skinner, analyses election scenarios and their implications for Egypt’s investment climate.
Egypt’s political drama continues to unfold following the confirmation that conservative Islamist and Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi and member of the old guard Ahmed Shafiq will stand head-to-head in a June run-off vote for the presidency. That moderate Islamist candidates Abdel Moneim Abdoul Fotouh and Mohamed Selim al-Awwa, along with secular left-of-centre Hamdeen Sabahi did not acquire sufficient votes to place amongst the top two for the runoff is regrettable. One might say the same of former foreign minister and former secretary-general of the Arab League Amr Moussa who, despite serving under former President Hosni Mubarak, is less of a controversial figure than Shafiq. The two front-runners are likely to cause even greater political polarisation in Egypt. This is despite efforts by Morsi and Shafiq to widen their appeal to the broader Egyptian electorate.