Jordan briefing: As Syria conflict escalates, security risks posed to neighbouring Jordan are likely to become ever more acute

By Jordan Perry

Violence in Syria has serious implications for the wider region, and this includes Jordan, which has so far had to tread a fine line between placing the Assad regime under mounting pressure and refraining from a political stance that might provoke the Ba’athist regime. Sharing a 375km-long border with Syria, Jordan has received the largest number of Syrians fleeing from the violence. As many as 35,000 Syrians have registered with the UN Refugee Agency in Jordan, though it is probable that many more are in need of assistance in the country. A number of local and international news sources indicate that as many as 140,000 Syrians may have fled to the country since the conflict began.

Although the Jordanian government desires a speedy resolution to the conflict in Syria, it is loath to become too heavily involved in the crisis. King Abdullah and his ministers fear the repercussions that might result from taking too hard a line on Syria. Whilst the Jordanian government almost certainly desires the fall of the Assad regime, it remains wary of acting in a way that might spark a riposte from Damascus – including, in the worst case, cross-border military action. Clearly, Assad’s chief concern remains defeating the rebel fighters within Syria. However, should security conditions continue to deteriorate in Syria as sharply as they have in recent weeks, the Assad regime may engage in increasingly unpredictable actions.
(more…)